Making a P.I.I.G.S. ear of Europe
Italian bonds have soared passed the so-called “unsustainable” 7% barrier and it looks increasingly certain that Italy, the eighth largest economy in the world, will need a bailout.
The announcement that Italian Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi, will step down upon the agreement of fresh austerity measures, has failed to stabilise confidence among the markets.
"I will resign as soon as the [budget] law is passed, and, since I believe there is no other majority possible, I see elections being held at the beginning of February and I will not be a candidate in them," stated Mr. Berlusconi to Italian newspaper, La Stampa.
The yield on Italian bonds breached 7.4% from 6.8% in just one hour, with the main index in Milan trading at over 3.5% lower, with shares in Mr. Berlusconi’s Mediaset company plummeting almost 10%.
If Italy was to pay 7% interest on all its €1.9 trillion debt, it would add a staggering €70 billion a year bill.
However, Italy’s problem is that the bailout fund Europe has set aside is simply not big enough to cope with the levels of debt Italy currently has.
Christine Lagarde, International Monetary Fund chief, has cautioned that the global economy is facing a “lost decade”, a period of practically no economic growth worldwide due to mounting financial uncertainty. Ms. Lagarde has also advised stable Asian nations to properly safeguard their own economies against further downturns.
Barclays has already stated that Italy is now “mathematically beyond the point of no return”, while Kathleen Brooks (research director at Forex) believes that the market is reacting to the possibility that a new coalition in Italy could worsen their situation.
Ian McCafferty, chief economist at the Confederation of Business Industry (CBI), said problems in Europe mean economic uncertainty has grown and the outlook for next year is “significantly weaker”.
“We still think we can avoid a double-dip recession, but the risks have increased,” he said.
With Greece on its knees, Portugal continuing to struggle and Spain do everything it can to stave off low confidence in the market, Europe is looking to Ireland to show the way.
Ireland is sticking to its agreement, no matter how harsh or unpopular it is. It is bringing its debt back into line and, while recovery is slow, it is evident.
Europe can cope with an Italian bailout but if Spain falls, the euro falls and that bodes ill for all concerned. The world must hope that Europe does not make a P.I.I.G.S. ear of the economy at such a crucial stage.
forward this email to a friend
|